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Thread: Economics? Yikes!

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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    I don't know if I really understand all of this, but I have no idea why Greece should have any resentment towards Germany. Germany bailed them out! They really can't expect that all of the German people were totally OK with that. Most likely, the majority were not.

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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    Biggest Greek Bank Warns Of Dire Euro Exit Fallout | Reuters

    If Greece left the euro, living standards would plummet, incomes would be slashed by more
    than half, and inflation and unemployment would skyrocket, the National Bank of Greece warned
    on Tuesday.

    The bank said per capita income would collapse by at least 55 percent, the new national currency
    would depreciate by 65 percent against the euro and a recession, now in its fifth year, would deepen
    by 22 percent.

    Painting a dire picture of post-euro Greece, it added that unemployment would jump to 34 percent of
    the work force from around 22 percent now and that inflation would rise to 30 percent from its current
    level of 2 percent.
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  3. #283
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    Quote Originally Posted by Roadie View Post
    I don't know if I really understand all of this, but I have no idea why Greece should have any resentment towards Germany.
    Germany bailed them out! They really can't expect that all of the German people were totally OK with that. Most likely,
    the majority were not.
    You probably do. It really isnt all that complicated. Germany is the responsible, conservative country who works and
    saves. Its surrounded by countries who spend like drunken sailors that want retirement at 50 years old and free
    government everything from cradle to grave. Only nothing is really free. They've been on a drunken spending rampage
    for the last decade or more and now the bill has arrived. Germany agreed to give them money in exchange for a drastic
    reduction in spending [austerity] to get things under control. Greece [and others] made the deal temporarily to get out
    of trouble then revolted against austerity, elected Socialist leadership [France] and want to continue the binge spending.
    Germany has now cut them loose = slow motion train wreck.

    They keep thinking there is a way out...there isnt one. They dont want austerity because its too difficult. Continuing the
    out of control spending is driving the train right off the cliff.

    Spain faces 'total emergency' as fear grips markets - Telegraph

    Scramble for safety as Spain fears grow - FT.com

    Rush for havens as euro fears rise - FT.com

    Moody's Downgrades Danske, Other Danish Banks | Reuters

    The wisest people in the world study and know history, because all the same mistakes have
    been made many times over. Maggie was brilliant and she had it exactly right...



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  4. #284
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!


    Investors Flee Spain As Financial Crisis Spirals


    Spain battled to contain fears of financial collapse Wednesday, scrambling to fund a major
    banking rescue as its debt risk premium rocketed to a euro-era record.

    Money Flies Out Of Spain, Regions Pressured | Reuters


    Spaniards alarmed by the dire state of their banks are squirreling money abroad at the fastest
    rate since records began, figures showed on Thursday, and the credit ratings of eight regions
    were cut.

    Spaniards alarmed by the dire state of their banks are squirreling money abroad at the fastest
    rate since records began, figures showed on Thursday, and the credit ratings of eight regions
    were cut.

    The End Of The Euro: A Survivor’s Guide


    In every economic crisis there comes a moment of clarity. In Europe soon, millions of people will
    wake up to realize that the euro-as-we-know-it is gone. Economic chaos awaits them.

    Some European politicians are now telling us that an orderly exit for Greece is feasible under current
    conditions, and Greece will be the only nation that leaves. They are wrong. Greece’s exit is simply
    another step in a chain of events that leads towards a chaotic dissolution of the euro zone.

    Capital flight could last for months, leaving banks in the periphery short of liquidity and forcing them
    to contract credit – pushing their economies into deeper recessions and their voters towards anger.
    Even as the ECB refuses to provide large amounts of visible funding, the automatic mechanics of Europe’s
    payment system will mean the capital flight from Spain and Italy to German banks is transformed into
    larger and larger de facto loans by the Bundesbank to Banca d’Italia and Banco de Espana– essentially
    to the Italian and Spanish states. German taxpayers will begin to see through this scheme and become
    afraid of further losses.

    The end of the euro system looks like this. The periphery suffers ever deeper recessions — failing to meet
    targets set by the troika — and their public debt burdens will become more obviously unaffordable. The euro
    falls significantly against other currencies, but not in a manner that makes Europe more attractive as a place
    for investment.
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  5. #285
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    Ocean Size...

    'Markets Are Facing A Rerun Of The Great Panic Of 2008': Head Of World Bank Warns Europe Is Heading
    For 'Danger Zone' On Bleakest Day For Global Economy This Year | Mail Online


    The head of the World Bank yesterday warned that financial markets face a rerun of the Great Panic of 2008.
    On the bleakest day for the global economy this year, Robert Zoellick said crisis-torn Europe was heading for
    the ‘danger zone’. Mr Zoellick, who stands down at the end of the month after five years in charge of the watchdog,
    said it was ‘far from clear that eurozone leaders have steeled themselves’ for the looming catastrophe amid fears
    of a Greek exit from the single currency and meltdown in Spain. The flow of money into so-called ‘safe havens’
    such as UK, German and US government debt turned into a stampede yesterday.

    This Summer An 'Eerie Echo' Of Pre-Lehman: Zoellick

    Banks are under stress and depositors have begun to “jog,” Zoellick wrote in an editorial in the Financial Times on
    Thursday. “The European Central Bank, like the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2008, has sought to reassure markets by
    providing generous liquidity, but collateral quality is declining as the better pickings on bank balance sheets are
    used up,” he added.

    Egan-Jones Cuts Italy To B-Plus As Economy Stumbles

    Ratings agency Egan-Jones on Friday downgraded Italy's sovereign rating to B-plus from BB, noting the country's
    limping economy and the chance its banks could need more help.
    "Italy is in miserable shape," Egan-Jones said in a statement.
    "Italy's independent ability to support its banks is questionable given the country's weak condition," the agency added.

    "The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever? | ZeroHedge

    ■ We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now,
    to the collapse of the first major bank…

    ■ With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank
    closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments
    themselves.

    There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.

    ■ The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral
    for $700 trillion in derivatives…


    ■ Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations

    ■ From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.

    ■ And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?

    ■ And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?

    That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.

    It is the big RESET.
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  6. #286
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    The Week That Europe Stopped Pretending - Telegraph

    The euro has essentially broken down as a viable economic and political undertaking.
    The latest rush of events reeks of impending denouement.

    Switzerland is threatening capital controls to repel bank flight from Euroland. The Swiss
    two-year note has fallen to -0.32pc, not that it seems to make any difference.

    Denmark’s central bank said it was battening down the hatches for a "splintering" of EMU.
    It has cut interest rates twice in a matter or days and pledged to do whatever it takes to
    stop euros flooding into the country. Contingency plans are on the lips of officials in every
    capital in Europe, and beyond.

    On a single day, the European Commission said monetary union was in danger of "disintegration"
    and the European Central Bank said it was "unsustainable" as constructed. Their plaintive cries
    may have fallen on deaf ears in Berlin, but they were heard all too clearly by investors across
    the world.

    On Shills, Technocrats, Politicians and the Sinking Ship | ZeroHedge

    Three months ago I made fun of an ABC News report about the stock market. The occasion back
    then was the rise in the Dow Jones above 13,000. ABC has a panel of thirteen “experts.” All thirteen
    were in agreement; this time the move in stocks was the real deal. All thirteen experts were convinced
    that stocks had no where to go but up for the rest of the year. Of course they were all wrong.

    These are the faces of ABC’s experts. If you watch TV, you may recognize them. I don’t think these
    folks are experts. They are shills. If they did not see problems looming a few months ago, they are
    either blind, or they were just lying.

    The ship is sinking. The captains are embarrassed that they have put the ship on a reef. They don’t
    want to admit to past sins so they refuse to put the lifeboats in the water for fear that the passengers
    will lose confidence. What those captains are actually doing is insuring that all the folks on board will drown.
    I would like to see a few of those captains go down with the ship, but it is unnecessary that all the
    passengers (seven billion) drown too. We are on the edge of a very hard landing. I don’t think it can be
    avoided any longer.

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  7. #287
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    What Do The World Economy, The Euro, And An AirBus A330 Have In Common?

    Afterburner With Bill Whittle: Into the Sea
    An excellent explanation of the world economic crisis. Thinking it couldnt happen in
    the US is both arrogant and downright foolish. $16 Trillion in debt is about as bankrupt as
    you can get. Pretty soon it wont be necessary to count any higher...it wont matter.

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  8. #288
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    The Truth Is Not Pretty...

    Guest Post: The "Solution" Is Collapse


    We're like a sprawling family bickering over the inheritance: we'll keep arguing over who deserves what
    until the inheritance is gone. That will trigger one final outburst of finger-pointing, resentment and betrayal,
    and then we'll go do something else to get by. The "solution" is thus collapse. This model has been very
    effectively explored in The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization by
    Thomas Homer-Dixon. The basic idea is that when the carrying costs of the society exceed its output, the
    whole contraption collapses. The political adjunct to this systemic implosion is that the productive people
    just stop supporting the Status Quo because it's become too burdensome.

    You can read all about that here:
    Goodbye and best of luck with all those government [redistribute the wealth] giveaway programs.

    Friday Dump Complete: Moody's Warns Of Spanish Downgrade, Threatens AAA-Countries In Case Of Grexit


    First we got Spain miraculously announcing late at night local time, but certainly after close of market US time,
    that the bailout so many algorithms had taken for granted in ramping stocks into the close may not be coming,
    because, picture this, Germany may have conditions when bailing the broke country's banks out, and Spain is just
    not cool with that
    , and now, after the close of FX and futures trading, we get Moody's giving us the warning the
    after Egan-Jones, S&P, and Fitch, it is now its turn to cut the Spanish A3 rating."As Spain moves closer to the
    need for direct external support from its European partners, the increased risk to the country's creditors may
    prompt further rating actions. The official estimates of recapitalising Spain's banking system have risen significantly
    and the country's indirect reliance on European Central Bank (ECB) funding via its banks has been growing.

    A Game Of Euro Chicken From The German Perspective: "Playing Until the Germans Lose Their Nerve"


    "The next stage in the crisis will be blatant blackmail....
    With their refusal to accept money from the bailout fund to recapitalize their banks, the Spanish are not far from
    causing the entire system to explode. They clearly figure that the Germans will lose their nerve and agree to
    rehabilitate their banks for them without demanding any guarantee in return that things will take a lasting
    turn for the better."

    And Promptly Coming Right After The Market Close...


    ... is the news (which is not news, because as we had explicitly stated early this morning, Spain admitting it needs
    a bailout absent a new bailout plan in place, launches the country's bond yields into hyperspace) that had it hit 30
    minute ago would have sent everything red for the day: Spain Resisting Conditions On Bank Bailout - EU Official,
    BBG
    But why would this news, coming at nearly 11pm Spanish tim, have to come before the market close, when all
    of the day's gains would have been undone. Why indeed.
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  9. #289
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    The Sugar High Fades
    Incredibly...No one has learned anything yet. Announcement of the enormous $100B Spanish "bailout" led
    markets to an initial rally that quickly evaporated by the close of the Euro markets with a near historic 7%
    sell-off by close of business.

    That trick doesnt work anymore fellas.

    Euro Zone Agrees To Lend Spain Up To 100 Billion Euros | Reuters
    Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to
    shore up its teetering banks and Madrid said it would specify precisely how much it needs once independent
    audits report in just over a week.

    Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to shore
    up its teetering banks and Madrid said it would specify precisely how much it needs once independent audits
    report in just over a week.

    Stocks Slip as 'Spailout' Rally Fades
    Stocks continued to drift lower Monday as an early market rally quickly fizzled after initial enthusiasm
    over the bank-bailout for Spain faded and amid ongoing worries over the upcoming Greek election.

    Europe Brings Out The "Capital Controls" Bazooka | ZeroHedge
    In other words, that money you thought you had... You don't really have it. We can only hope this message
    was not meant to restore confidence and prevent future bank runs.
    Because if Europe wanted a continental
    bank run, it may have just gotten one.

    This is getting scary very fast.

    Full piece from Reuters:
    European finance officials have discussed as a worst-case scenario limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM
    machines, imposing border checks and introducing capital controls in at least Greece should Athens decide
    to leave the euro.

    As well as limiting cash withdrawals and imposing capital controls, they have discussed the possibility
    of suspending the Schengen agreement, which allows for visa-free travel among 26 countries, including
    most of the European Union.
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    Re: Economics? Yikes!

    This Latest Euro Fix Will Come Apart In Less Than A Month - Telegraph
    Another day, another sticking plaster solution from beleaguered eurozone policymakers.

    Only this one may not even succeed in buying time – I give it less than a month before some such
    other piece of bad news comes along to fire the crisis anew. Like all the others, the latest fix seems
    to create as many problems as it solves. The euphoria in markets at Spain's rescue lasted all of a few
    hours; having bounded away at the opening, they ended broadly flat.

    Worry for Italy Quickly Replaces Relief for Spain

    Concerns grew on Monday that Italy could be the next victim of Europe’s financial infection, leading nervous
    investors to sell Italian stocks and bonds and damping euphoria over a weekend deal to bail out Spain’s banks.

    UK News: Now 80% demand vote to quit EU

    DEMANDS for the British people to have a say on our role in Europe got a huge boost yesterday. A new poll
    showed more than 80 per cent of voters are crying out for a referendum. Nearly half of voters – 49 per cent –
    want their voices heard straight away, according to the survey.
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